Hello again, and good morning from NYC!
An update for those interested in our additional research offerings:
We are currently preparing to publish the Forgotten Forty, a collection of one-page reports on the forty companies we believe to have the greatest potential to outperform the leading indices in the year ahead due to a catalyst we see on the horizon.
This year’s edition comes at a 50% discount for those who preorder before December 20th.
You can download 6 complimentary reports from last year’s Forgotten Forty (with updated analysis) as well as find information on claiming the preorder pricing by clicking here.
Thoughts on Disney & The Media Landscape:
The streaming media landscape just keeps on shifting: Netflix (along with nearly every other streaming content provider) had a hard 2021 and 2022 as the investment community rethought streaming media multiples and questioned just about everything: subscriber growth, content spending, even financial viability. In last year’s Forgotten Forty report, we suggested that Disney’s attempts to improve the fundamentals of its streaming business were a good sign for profitability down the road, but that journey is still ongoing: although industry leader Netflix has since staged a tremendous recovery, DIS shares did not recover alongside the streaming giant, despite hugely popular streaming platforms and massive scale of its own. (Together the Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN streaming services reach ~225 million subscribers, vs. ~247 million for Netflix.)
Right now optimism about Disney’s streaming progress is overshadowed by distractions and overhangs: public skirmishes with activist shareholders, politicians, and cable TV providers; the long-awaited purchase of Comcast’s remaining stake in Hulu; the migration of ESPN to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) platform; and the declining linear business. Even so, considerable progress has occurred over the past 12 months (DTC operating losses down from $1.4 billion to $420 million in FY 4Q 2023), with management still expecting the DTC business to achieve profitability by the end of FY 2024 (September).
Disney’s impending purchase of Comcast’s 33% stake in Hulu will cost at least $9 billion, with the transaction price and date (expected early 2024) likely to be revealed soon. While teasing progress on partnerships with ESPN, management has increased its cost cutting target to $7.5 billion, $2 billion above the figure given in early 2023 after Bob Iger returned as CEO. As streaming continues to regain strength over the upcoming year, we’ll be watching these developments closely for signs that DIS shares are finally waking up from their long slumber.
From this week:
A Market of Stocks
Explore the stock market lessons of 2023 with insights from financial experts Mellody Hobson and John Rogers of Ariel Investments. We go through their recent Wall Street Journal article and add some insights of our own for a plan to navigate today's investment landscape.
In Case you Missed It:
Value Invest New York: December 12th, 2023
The 2023 VINY conference will have some of the world’s leading investors speaking at it. It will also be a showcase for less well known and smaller firms. The speakers will provide valuable insights into the methods and approaches that have made them successful, will comment on the current investment climate and will offer specific investment ideas.
We’ve secured a $300 discount for our subscribers who may be interested in attending. Details inside.
[We do not receive any referral fees.]
As always, thank you for reading! If you’re new here, don’t be shy: Subscribe! And if you enjoy the work we’re doing, one of the best ways to show it is to click the “Like” button, it’s more valuable than you might think.
—Boyar Research
Important Disclosures. The information herein is provided by Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research LLC (“Boyar Research”) and: (a) is for general, informational purposes only; (b) is not tailored to the specific investment needs of any specific person or entity; and (c) should not be construed as investment advice. Boyar Research does not offer investment advisory services and is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) or any other regulatory body. Any opinions expressed herein represent current opinions of Boyar Research only, and no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information herein. Boyar Research assumes no obligation to update or revise such information. In addition, certain information herein has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources, and, although Boyar Research believes this information to be reliable, Boyar Research has not independently verified such information and is not responsible for third-party errors. You should not assume that any investment discussed herein will be profitable or that any investment decisions in the future will be profitable. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Important Information: Performance Information. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The reports in this sample are for informational purposes only and the performance of the stocks selected is not indicative of the performance of the entire Forgotten Forty. The performance of the stocks selected and the performance of the Forgotten Forty may in fact diverge materially. Additional information regarding the performance of other companies in the Forgotten Forty is available from Boyar Research upon request. This information is not a recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any security, including an interest in any investment vehicle managed or advised by affiliates of Boyar Research. Any information that may be considered advice concerning a federal tax issue is not intended to be used, and cannot be used, for the purposes of (i) avoiding penalties imposed under the United States Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any transaction or matter discussed herein. Clients of an affiliate of Boyar Research and employees of Boyar Research own shares in DIS.