Boyar's Research Digest #83
March 30th, 2025
Fact of the Week:
The average holding period for U.S. stocks is now under 6 months.
A Tale of Two Conferences
This week, I had the pleasure of attending two investor conferences in New York—Value Invest NY and the New York Quality-Growth Conference. While their approaches couldn’t be more different, both offered valuable perspective on how some of the world’s savviest investors are thinking about today’s market.
At Value Invest NY, the mood was surprisingly upbeat—perhaps too upbeat for my taste, as a contrarian by nature. But the presentations were top notch. Django Davidson of Hosking Partners made the case for platinum and explained why his firm—firmly rooted in the capital cycle framework—believes the winds are shifting in favor of materials and energy. He warned that the massive capital expenditures by Big Tech to support large language models could ultimately prove problematic, and he's been trimming tech exposure accordingly. Instead, he’s steering toward industries with more favorable supply/demand dynamics.
Samantha McLemore of Patient Capital offered a more personal presentation, drawing on lessons learned from her years investing alongside the legendary Bill Miller. And I was pleased to hear Andrew Wellington of Lyrical highlight two names we own—Global Payments (GPN) and Ameriprise (AMP). Wellington, a dyed-in-the-wool value investor, looks to find "gems amid the junk." To see our latest report on Ameriprise, click below.
In contrast to the value-focused crowd, the Quality-Growth Conference showcased businesses that are, frankly, often too rich for our blood. I respect the appeal—great companies, strong moats, and global scale. But as valuation-sensitive investors, we tend to pass (yet like to keep our eyes and ears open for when these equities go on sale). Still, the bullish cases for Shopify (SHOP) and Hermès (RMS.PA)—despite trading at nosebleed multiples (71x for SHOP and 52x for RMS)—were well-argued and worth hearing. For me, though, buying high-quality businesses only works when I can do so at reasonable valuations, ideally with a catalyst for value realization.
That’s why I was especially interested in Jennifer Foster of Chilton Investment’s presentation on Home Depot (HD)—a company we know well. We first profiled Home Depot in September 2006 when it traded at just 12.5x earnings and traded for $36/share due to short-term mismanagement. At the time, we believed the issues were fixable—and fortunately, they were. But this was also an exercise in patience. While the investment ultimately worked out, the stock did very little for nearly five years (in fact it traded for $23 per share in March of 2009) before beginning its ascent.
Today, the stock trades at around 23x earnings and sells for $358—not a bargain, but not unreasonable given Home Depot’s dominance, favorable housing trends, and the growing opportunity it has with PROs (contractors and other tradespeople), who Ms. Foster estimates already account for more than 50% of sales. She argues that if PROs make up an even greater percentage of the business, the stock could command a higher multiple—pointing to companies like Watsco (WSO) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) as examples of what a more PRO-heavy mix can mean for valuation.
Foster highlighted HD’s margin stability, free cash flow generation, and supply chain strength, while emphasizing the long-term growth opportunity from the aging U.S. housing stock—something we’ve written about extensively in our institutional research. For those willing to pay up a bit for quality, Home Depot may still have room to run. (Find our latest report on HD below, as well as our piece on homebuilders from 2023.)
Another standout was James Bullock of Lindsell Train, who made a strong case for TKO Group (TKO)—the home of both WWE and UFC. We’ve long appreciated the value of live sports content through our investments in Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) and Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATRA), but Bullock’s data on WWE caught my attention.
In 2000, WWE’s Raw broadcast rights were worth just $28 million annually; today, they’re over $500 million—a 12% annualized growth rate. Despite that, Bullock believes the deal remains under-monetized relative to the NFL, whose rights are valued at 20x that number. And here’s a fun fact: WWE has more YouTube subscribers than the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL combined. Still, at 49x earnings, this one stays on the watch list—for now.
Conferences like these offer more than just stock pitches—they're an opportunity to test your thinking against others, sharpen your process, and occasionally find a gem. For me, the big takeaway wasn’t a new stock idea (though I heard a few), but rather a renewed conviction in sticking to our process: buying good—or great—businesses at attractive prices, with a clear catalyst for capital appreciation. It may not always be in vogue, but it works.
Important Disclosures. The information herein is provided by Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research LLC (“Boyar Research”) and: (a) is for general, informational purposes only; (b) is not tailored to the specific investment needs of any specific person or entity; and (c) should not be construed as investment advice. Boyar Research does not offer investment advisory services and is not an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) or any other regulatory body. Any opinions expressed herein represent current opinions of Boyar Research only, and no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information herein. Boyar Research assumes no obligation to update or revise such information. In addition, certain information herein has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources, and, although Boyar Research believes this information to be reliable, Boyar Research has not independently verified such information and is not responsible for third-party errors. You should not assume that any investment discussed herein will be profitable or that any investment decisions in the future will be profitable. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Important Information: Performance Information. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The reports in this sample are for informational purposes only and the performance of the stocks selected is not indicative of the performance of all the stocks profiled in Boyar Research. The performance of the stocks selected and the performance of the stocks in Boyar Research may in fact diverge materially. Additional information regarding the performance of other companies featured in Boyar Research is available from Boyar Research upon request. This information is not a recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any security, including an interest in any investment vehicle managed or advised by affiliates of Boyar Research. Any information that may be considered advice concerning a federal tax issue is not intended to be used, and cannot be used, for the purposes of (i) avoiding penalties imposed under the United States Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any transaction or matter discussed herein. Clients of an affiliate of Boyar Research and employees of Boyar Research own shares in GPN, AMP, HD, MSGS, and BATRA.